Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Panera PNRA Sell

Panera (PNRA), sold half at $152
- Q1 (4/29/14) net income $42.2m (-12% y2y), included $2.2m tax legal benefit
- Q1 revenue $605m (+8% y2y), included $2.2m tax legal benefit
- Q1 "severe weather impacted same-store sales" > probable
- “Investors should view Q1 against the backdrop of Panera’s comprehensive effort - extending over multiple years - to shape the future of our company” CEO Ron Shaich > probable but next few quarters seem grim.
- “narrowing” its full-year 2014 EPS guidance to a range of 6.80 to $7.00 (5% lower)
- Local stores in downtown Burlington has large tears in seats after only 1 year, wuwt?
- Local staff regularly makes mistakes on orders, not particularly friendly, even rude on occasion.
+ Multi-year effort to stream line order process to accommodate 40% of take-out orders.

Conclusion: Ron Shaich is a great CEO and I think he will turn Panera around but it will take a few quarters, no need to hold the stock in the interim. Sell half and wait up to 2 weeks to see if there is a post announcement run-up like for last 2 quarters that also disappointed.




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