Friday, February 26, 2016

Sell Fidelity China Fund, Buy Google, Buy Solar City, Buy Freelancer

I made the following trades today for the following reasons.

Sold Fidelity China Fund (FHKCX)
- China could be headed for period of stagnation, like Japan, due to massive overspending on housing, infrastructure and manufacturing subsidies for decades.
- I have little direct contact with China.
- Taking loss for tax purposes.
Price: $21.39
Trade/Portfolio: 4.71%
Position/Portfolio: Closed

Bought Solar City (SCTY)
- Lots of bad news like Nevada resetting net meter rates creating buying opportunity, stock down from $65 to $19 in a few months.
- I signed up with Solar City and sales experience was excellent.
- Tesla's commitment to collaboration like Power Ball offer good growth opportunities.
- Musk backstopping drops.
Price: $19.34
Trade/Portfolio: 1.64%
Position/Portfolio: 6.93%

Bought Google (GOOG)
- Same reasons as recent purchases.
Price: $710.20
Trade/Portfolio: 1.35%
Position/Portfolio: 6.91%

Bought FLN:AU at market open
- Q415 revenue up 61%, above yearly increase of 48%, indicating accelerating growth.
- Stock down from $1.80 1feb16 to $1.34 setting up buying opportunity.
- Matt Barrie together with other company officers own around 80% of the shares on issue.
- Continued success of Coursera, Udacity, Khan Academy and edX helps Freelancer.
Price: $1.35 AUD
Trade/Portfolio: 1.63%
Position/Portfolio: 6.76%

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Sell LinkedIn, Buy Chipoltle, Google, Solar City

I made the following trades today.

Sold LinkedIn (LNKD)
- Quarterly result was below expected but did not warrant 44% drop in stock price. However, investors will continue to punish the stock disproportionately until a few quarters of above average results are reported, or until a change in the story of the stock. So there are better places to invest the money in the 3 to 6 month horizon.
- Company not run by founder, Jeff Weiner seems like an amazing leader but great companies, from an investor's perspective, are run by founders.
- I want to take capital loss for tax purposes.
Price: $114.87
Trade/Portfolio: 3.64%
Position/Portfolio: Closed

Bought Chipoltle (CMG)
- Same reasons as recent posts.
Price: $517.92
Trade/Portfolio: 1.09%
Position/Portfolio: 6.87%

Bought Google (GOOG)
- Same reasons as recent purchases.
Price: $710.20
Trade/Portfolio: 1.03%
Position/Portfolio: 6.56%

Bought Solar City (SCTY)
- Same reasons as recent purchases.
Price: $17.47
Trade/Portfolio: 1.04%
Position/Portfolio: 6.03%

Thursday, February 18, 2016

Sell LinkedIn (LNKD), Buy Chipoltle (CMG)

I sold LinkedIn today for the following reasons;
- To free up cash to purchase other stocks that have been battered in the downturn but have better momentum in the next 3 to 6 months.
- Lock in loss for tax purposes.
- Profit Confidential - For the first quarter of 2016, LinkedIn guided revenue of about $820 million, not the $867 million that Wall Street analysts expected which would be 29%. The stock doesn't deserve the -44% decline after earnings were announced, but LNKD will probably underperform similar companies in the next 3 month because investors are shell-shocked by the drop.
- LinkedIn CEO is Jeff Weiner who seems super smart and super hard-working, however that is not as good as if it were a company run by a founder who was super-smart and super hard working.
- I don't use LinkedIn as much as Twitter or Facebook, not sure why, maybe business only aspect makes it less interesting.
- Still planning on keeping LinkedIn as long term holding because it is a clearly recognized leader with high market share and profitability.
Price $110.01
Trade/Portfolio: 1.25%
Position/Portfolio: 2.54%

I bought Chipoltle because;
- Still trading off $750 highs because of E.Coli issues.
- Company is executing on comprehensive plan to minimize food contamination risks.
- I eat at Chipoltle often with family and friends, and neither is staying away because of health risks.
- The stores look like crap but they are still always full, so if they fix the design, same store sales have some upward potential.
- Inexpensive food chains should do relatively well during fearful times so Chipoltle is a good hedge against heavily tech weighted portfolio.
Price $507.92
Trade/Portfolio: 2.85%
Position/Portfolio: 5.23%

Thursday, February 11, 2016

Buy Lending Club (LC)

I bought shares in Lending Club today for the following reasons.
- Q4 2015 Quarterly Results; Adjusted EPS $0.05 vs $0.04, Revenue $134.5m vs $130.6m, Raises 1QFY16 guidance to $147-149m vs $146.4, EBITDA $25-27m vs $24.6 million in 4QFY15 according to Business ETC.
- Share buy back of $150m.
- On February 1st, JP Morgan purchased $1B in loans from LC.
- Market Cap $2.2B vs ~200B JPMorgan
- My money on Lending Club paying 8% interest versus 1% on Fidelity, planning to shift more.
- Blogger Timothy Li notes Lending Club doesn't have loans on their books which means they don't get to keep the yield but also means they don't risk collapse.
Price $6.91
Trade/Portfolio: 1.21%
Position/Portfolio: 6.27%

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Buy Chipoltle (CMG)

I bought Chipolte today for the following reasons;
- Stock down from $750 on 13oct15 to $404 on 12jan16 because of E. Coli outbreak.
- CDC announce yesterday that outbreak of E. coli "appears to be over".
- My kids and I like Chipoltle and eat there a few times a month.
- The store in South Burlington is ugly as hell but always full.
Price $474.73
Trade/Portfolio: 2.49%
Position/Portfolio: 2.49% (Opening position)