Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Sell Amazon (AMZN)

I sold shares in Amazon today for the following reasons;
- After 225% run it has become 2nd largest holding in portfolio.
- The stock seems to be getting a bit ahead of itself.
- After 9 year run in bull market, I am moving more into cash.
Price: $789.14
Trade/Portfolio: 1.64%
Position/Portfolio: 11.97%

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Sold Solar City (SCTY)

I sold shares of Solar City (SCTY) today for the reasons below.
- Musk and Rive brother's funding latest round of debt signaling weakness in demand.
- Shares of Solar City lagging Tesla which may indicate problems with deal.
- Reasons cited in articles below.
- Musk's announcement of solar rooftop could be a huge boon for the company.

SolarCity: Why Are Shares Not Matching Tesla?, Seeking Alpha, 23aug16
- In June 16, Tesla 0.122 to 0.131 per shares for each share of SolarCity they owned.
- In early August, merger set at 0.11 shares of Tesla for each share of SolarCity.
- Since merger agreement, Tesla shares down 2.9%, while SolarCity shares have fallen 12.8%.

Musk Fiddles As SolarCity Burns, Seeking Alpha, 24aug16
- $125m bonds bought mostly by Musk $65m and Rives brothers $35m.
- "interest rate on these Solar Bonds is steep - 6.5% for 18-month... junk bond category"
- Earnings announced on August 9th, no mention of pending bond filing on August 17th.
- "main purchaser of Solar Bonds in the past has been SpaceX"

Price: $22.56
Trade/Portfolio: 2.02%
Position/Portfolio: 1.98%

Friday, July 29, 2016

Buy Chipoltle (CMG), Sell Oil Services (IEZ)

I bought shares of Chipoltle today because;
- Revenue has reversed trend. This type of inflexion points usually leads to strong gains.
- My family and I eat at Chipoltle more often and we feel that awareness and programs being implemented make it less likely to get food poisoning at Chipoltle than other restaurants.
- Stock still trading well below high of $750 about nine months ago.
- Founder still running Chipoltle and appears committed to fixing the issue.
Price: $426.65
Trade/Portfolio: 1.05%
Position/Portfolio: 7.10%

I sold IEZ because;
- Long term trend in oil seems uninspiring as electric cars and solar continue to nibble away at potential market
Price: $36.74
Trade/Portfolio: 0.55%
Position/Portfolio: Closed position

Friday, June 24, 2016


I purchased shares of (CRM) today for the following reasons.
- Stock down 4.86% after Brexit vote setting up buying opportunity.
- Same reasons as previous post.
Price: $78.86
Trade/Portfolio: 1.26%
Position/Portfolio: 3.72%

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Buy, Sell Solar City

I bought (CRM) today for the following reasons;
- Quarterly results outperformed.
- Marc Benioff is a charismatic and effective founder & CEO.
- Helping people sell more is a basic business need and Salesforce is a recognized leader.
- SAS business model wins in the long run.
Price: $82.03
Trade/Portfolio: 3.01%
Position/Portfolio: 3.01% (opening position)

I sold SolarCity (SCTY);
- Quarterly results included bookings at half the estimate.
- After limited research on Nevada's feed-in tariff controversy, it appears that while retroactive repricing seems unethical, state has legitimate case to create solar farms and reduce feed-in tariff's moving forward.
- Purchase plans gaining market share over leasing in which SolarCity has a funding advantage.
- Too many regulatory dependencies affecting stock.
Price: $20.31
Trade/Portfolio: 4.22%
Position/Portfolio: 4.22%

Monday, May 9, 2016

Sell Lending Club

I closed position on Lending Club (LC) today because;
- CEO Renaud Laplanche resigned along with 3 top managers after internal audit discovered loans were brought against customer's instructions. Limited details were provided but the fact that the founder and CEO had to resign doesn't make me want to wait to fully understand.
- Profits lower than expected, $0.01 versus $0.05 consensus.
- Stock has underperformed market for last 3 quarters despite beating expectations. This, coupled with ethics questions, could mean they were cooking the books.
- There at least a small probability that traditional banking interests are colluding against loan market places, but it's time to shoot first and ask questions later.
- Sad day for the revolution in banking :(
Price: $5.45
Trade/Portfolio: 4.70%
Position/Portfolio: Closed

Friday, April 15, 2016

Sell India Fund IFN

Sold IFN today for following reasons;
- Cover tax payments due to fact that I've been buying heaps on recent weakness šŸ¤‘
- India is projected to surpass China in population in 2023, as we get to within 2 years of that date a bunch of yahoos will buy in driving price higher than the fundamentals merit.
- Lots of other good reasons to stick in India, hard working people, open to outside world, Modi...
Price: $23.15
Trade/Portfolio: 2.19%
Position/Portfolio: 4.57%

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Buy Tesla (TSLA)

I bought more stock in Tesla for following reasons;

Tesla Model 3: This Is What A 'Game Changer' Looks Like, Forbes, 5-apr-2016
- Orders; 198k in 24hrs, 276k in 48hrs, 325k Thursday (1 week?) $35k price
- Top selling car in 2015, Toyota Camry, 361k units, $21-$28k price
- Mercedes S-Class sales 2015, 86k units, $35-$35k price
- Model S sold 50k units in 2015, 75% growth, at an average price of $70-$80k
- Mercedes E-Class autos, 50k units, in much lower $50k range.
- Mercedes S-Class, 22k units, ~$90k price

Wired Feb16
- Chevy Volt has sold 80k volts from dec10 to dec15.
- Bob Lutz, CEO of GM at time Volt project was launched is on record as having said "global warming is a croc of shit"
- In the late 90s, GM leased EV1s while lobbying California to drop requirement
- GM announces new Volt with 200 mile range costing $35k will roll off assembly line dec16.

Market cap of $35B is still reasonable when compared to Toyota $158B.

Recent announcement of quarterly unit miss is dampening stock.

During Model 3 announcement, Musk said Tesla will be doubling SuperCharger stations by end of 2017. That plus Gigafactory creates barriers to entry.

Price: $255.89
Trade/Portfolio: 2.47%
Position/Portfolio: 15.81%

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Buy Facebook (FB), Sell Oil Equipment Services (IEZ)

Bought Facebook (FB) for the following reasons;
- I am personally using Facebook more to subscribe to events.
- Many colleagues have told me Facebook is best place to AB test content marketing ideas.
- Searching for products still doesn't work but it would be a huge gusher if FB ever fixes it.
- Google appears to have given up on social networking.
- Snapchat is serious competitor having siphoned off college market.
Price: $115.96
Trade/Portfolio: 2.30%
Position/Portfolio: 10.11%

Sold More results iShares Dow Jones US Oil Equipment (IEZ) for the following reasons;
- Better places to use money in next few months.
- Take a capital loss and consider re-entering after wash sale period expires.
Price: $35.13
Trade/Portfolio: 3.80%
Position/Portfolio: Closed

Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Buy Chipoltle

I bought Chipoltle CMG for the following reasons;
- 3 employees are got sick with Norovirus in Massachusetts Chipoltle which caused 4% decline in stock vs up day for the Nasdaq, so it's a buying opportunity.
- Chipoltle continues to implement food safety plan which should make it one of the safest chains.
- Steve Ells has been running the business for 22 year, recently turned 50, plenty of room to run.
Price: $504.23
Trade/Portfolio: 1.01%
Position/Portfolio: 7.10%

Friday, March 4, 2016

Spotlight on Steve Ells, Founder and CEO of Chipoltle

Born September 12, 1966 in Indianopolis.
University of Colorado Bolder, BA Art History
Culinary Institute of America, NY 1990
Sous-Chef in San Francisco for 2 years
Founded Chipoltle 1993

Founder Letter following E. coli outbreak.
- 52 people infected by E. coli outbreak.
- 140 people infected by norovirus outbreak in 1 Boston store.
- Throughout our supply chain, we are implementing high-resolution sampling and testing...
- Our menu has remained virtually unchanged for the last 22 years, only 64 ingredients in our food.

Food Safety Plan
- High resolution testing at suppliers.
- Central kitchens.
- Marinate meat at end of night.
- Blanching; lemons, limes, jalapeƱos, onions & avocados, submerged in boiling water for 5 seconds.
- Restaurant sanitation.
- Audits & Inspections.
- Employee wellness.

According to Wikipedia, the New York Times reported that Ells was paid $25 million more than comparable executives at Ford, Boeing and AT&T in 2013. By early 2010s, Ells and his co-chief, Montgomery Moran, were paid more than $300 million. In May 2014 shareholders rejected a plan to further the executives' wages.

Chipoltle serves "naturally raised meat" and support sustainable agriculture.

Friday, February 26, 2016

Sell Fidelity China Fund, Buy Google, Buy Solar City, Buy Freelancer

I made the following trades today for the following reasons.

Sold Fidelity China Fund (FHKCX)
- China could be headed for period of stagnation, like Japan, due to massive overspending on housing, infrastructure and manufacturing subsidies for decades.
- I have little direct contact with China.
- Taking loss for tax purposes.
Price: $21.39
Trade/Portfolio: 4.71%
Position/Portfolio: Closed

Bought Solar City (SCTY)
- Lots of bad news like Nevada resetting net meter rates creating buying opportunity, stock down from $65 to $19 in a few months.
- I signed up with Solar City and sales experience was excellent.
- Tesla's commitment to collaboration like Power Ball offer good growth opportunities.
- Musk backstopping drops.
Price: $19.34
Trade/Portfolio: 1.64%
Position/Portfolio: 6.93%

Bought Google (GOOG)
- Same reasons as recent purchases.
Price: $710.20
Trade/Portfolio: 1.35%
Position/Portfolio: 6.91%

Bought FLN:AU at market open
- Q415 revenue up 61%, above yearly increase of 48%, indicating accelerating growth.
- Stock down from $1.80 1feb16 to $1.34 setting up buying opportunity.
- Matt Barrie together with other company officers own around 80% of the shares on issue.
- Continued success of Coursera, Udacity, Khan Academy and edX helps Freelancer.
Price: $1.35 AUD
Trade/Portfolio: 1.63%
Position/Portfolio: 6.76%

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Sell LinkedIn, Buy Chipoltle, Google, Solar City

I made the following trades today.

Sold LinkedIn (LNKD)
- Quarterly result was below expected but did not warrant 44% drop in stock price. However, investors will continue to punish the stock disproportionately until a few quarters of above average results are reported, or until a change in the story of the stock. So there are better places to invest the money in the 3 to 6 month horizon.
- Company not run by founder, Jeff Weiner seems like an amazing leader but great companies, from an investor's perspective, are run by founders.
- I want to take capital loss for tax purposes.
Price: $114.87
Trade/Portfolio: 3.64%
Position/Portfolio: Closed

Bought Chipoltle (CMG)
- Same reasons as recent posts.
Price: $517.92
Trade/Portfolio: 1.09%
Position/Portfolio: 6.87%

Bought Google (GOOG)
- Same reasons as recent purchases.
Price: $710.20
Trade/Portfolio: 1.03%
Position/Portfolio: 6.56%

Bought Solar City (SCTY)
- Same reasons as recent purchases.
Price: $17.47
Trade/Portfolio: 1.04%
Position/Portfolio: 6.03%

Thursday, February 18, 2016

Sell LinkedIn (LNKD), Buy Chipoltle (CMG)

I sold LinkedIn today for the following reasons;
- To free up cash to purchase other stocks that have been battered in the downturn but have better momentum in the next 3 to 6 months.
- Lock in loss for tax purposes.
- Profit Confidential - For the first quarter of 2016, LinkedIn guided revenue of about $820 million, not the $867 million that Wall Street analysts expected which would be 29%. The stock doesn't deserve the -44% decline after earnings were announced, but LNKD will probably underperform similar companies in the next 3 month because investors are shell-shocked by the drop.
- LinkedIn CEO is Jeff Weiner who seems super smart and super hard-working, however that is not as good as if it were a company run by a founder who was super-smart and super hard working.
- I don't use LinkedIn as much as Twitter or Facebook, not sure why, maybe business only aspect makes it less interesting.
- Still planning on keeping LinkedIn as long term holding because it is a clearly recognized leader with high market share and profitability.
Price $110.01
Trade/Portfolio: 1.25%
Position/Portfolio: 2.54%

I bought Chipoltle because;
- Still trading off $750 highs because of E.Coli issues.
- Company is executing on comprehensive plan to minimize food contamination risks.
- I eat at Chipoltle often with family and friends, and neither is staying away because of health risks.
- The stores look like crap but they are still always full, so if they fix the design, same store sales have some upward potential.
- Inexpensive food chains should do relatively well during fearful times so Chipoltle is a good hedge against heavily tech weighted portfolio.
Price $507.92
Trade/Portfolio: 2.85%
Position/Portfolio: 5.23%

Thursday, February 11, 2016

Buy Lending Club (LC)

I bought shares in Lending Club today for the following reasons.
- Q4 2015 Quarterly Results; Adjusted EPS $0.05 vs $0.04, Revenue $134.5m vs $130.6m, Raises 1QFY16 guidance to $147-149m vs $146.4, EBITDA $25-27m vs $24.6 million in 4QFY15 according to Business ETC.
- Share buy back of $150m.
- On February 1st, JP Morgan purchased $1B in loans from LC.
- Market Cap $2.2B vs ~200B JPMorgan
- My money on Lending Club paying 8% interest versus 1% on Fidelity, planning to shift more.
- Blogger Timothy Li notes Lending Club doesn't have loans on their books which means they don't get to keep the yield but also means they don't risk collapse.
Price $6.91
Trade/Portfolio: 1.21%
Position/Portfolio: 6.27%

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Buy Chipoltle (CMG)

I bought Chipolte today for the following reasons;
- Stock down from $750 on 13oct15 to $404 on 12jan16 because of E. Coli outbreak.
- CDC announce yesterday that outbreak of E. coli "appears to be over".
- My kids and I like Chipoltle and eat there a few times a month.
- The store in South Burlington is ugly as hell but always full.
Price $474.73
Trade/Portfolio: 2.49%
Position/Portfolio: 2.49% (Opening position)

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Buy Freelancer (FLN:AU)

I bought Freelancer today for the following reasons;
- Nasdaq down ~10% over last month dragging down lots of tech companies.
- Smaller, lesser known firms disproportionally whacked by downdraft.
- Freelancers to grow to 50% of US labor force by 2020.
- appears to have better platform & business strategy than Upwork, although I have not tried the new Upwork platform yet.
- Freelancer's CEO Matt Barrie is an A-list entrepreneur with Computer Science background although he does appear a bit too pre-occupied with Sydney night life :)
Price $1.59 AUD
Trade/Portfolio: 1.13%
Position/Portfolio: 5.80%

Friday, January 22, 2016

Buy Lending Club (LC)

I bought more Lending Club (LC) today for the following reasons;
- San Bernadino shooter borrowed money from Prosper, regulators interested which makes for great press but doesn't have real impact on long term viability of sector. As Laplanche said, shooter could have borrowed money from any bank. So good buy opportunity.
- Laplanche quoted in Inc saying LC didn't go public for a year but for the long term.
- Lending Club's growth rate of 104% makes it faster growing, $1B+ startup according to Laplanche.
- Lending Academy cites Lending Club and Proper as two main player but Lending Club much  bigger.
- Lending Club became profitable last quartner.
- Lending Club market cap down to $3.14B compared to JPMorgan at $204B.
Price $8.49
Trade/Portfolio: 1.06%
Position/Portfolio: 5.32%

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Buy Google (GOOG), Buy Solar City (SCTY)

I bought Google for the following reasons;
- Nasdaq down ~12% in last week due to anxiety over China sell-off and Oil at $27. However, US and European economies still strong and low oil prices are a positive for other parts of the economy.
- Apple exited Ads business this week, reducing competition for Google.
- Googles new Alphabet company structure should unleash value creation.
Price $689.53
Trade/Portfolio: 1.50%
Position/Portfolio: 4.73%

I bought Solar City for for the following reasons;
- Stock down from $57 to $30 in last 30 days due to exceptional events creating buy opportunity;
- Nevada reverses incentives for residential solar.
- Oil down to $27 a barrel because Iran sanctions lifted yesterday.
- Nasdaq down 12% for the week.
- Solar City and other solar companies announce they are leaving the state, some are saying a new deal may be in the works.
Price $30.35
Trade/Portfolio: 1.02%
Position/Portfolio: 6.67%