I sold shares of Solar City (SCTY) today for the reasons below.
- Musk and Rive brother's funding latest round of debt signaling weakness in demand.
- Shares of Solar City lagging Tesla which may indicate problems with deal.
- Reasons cited in articles below.
- Musk's announcement of solar rooftop could be a huge boon for the company.
SolarCity: Why Are Shares Not Matching Tesla?, Seeking Alpha, 23aug16
- In June 16, Tesla 0.122 to 0.131 per shares for each share of SolarCity they owned.
- In early August, merger set at 0.11 shares of Tesla for each share of SolarCity.
- Since merger agreement, Tesla shares down 2.9%, while SolarCity shares have fallen 12.8%.
Musk Fiddles As SolarCity Burns, Seeking Alpha, 24aug16
- $125m bonds bought mostly by Musk $65m and Rives brothers $35m.
- "interest rate on these Solar Bonds is steep - 6.5% for 18-month... junk bond category"
- Earnings announced on August 9th, no mention of pending bond filing on August 17th.
- "main purchaser of Solar Bonds in the past has been SpaceX"
Price: $22.56
Trade/Portfolio: 2.02%
Position/Portfolio: 1.98%
Thursday, August 25, 2016
Friday, July 29, 2016
Buy Chipoltle (CMG), Sell Oil Services (IEZ)
I bought shares of Chipoltle today because;
- Revenue has reversed trend. This type of inflexion points usually leads to strong gains.
- My family and I eat at Chipoltle more often and we feel that awareness and programs being implemented make it less likely to get food poisoning at Chipoltle than other restaurants.
- Stock still trading well below high of $750 about nine months ago.
- Founder still running Chipoltle and appears committed to fixing the issue.
Price: $426.65
Trade/Portfolio: 1.05%
Position/Portfolio: 7.10%
I sold IEZ because;
- Long term trend in oil seems uninspiring as electric cars and solar continue to nibble away at potential market
Price: $36.74
Trade/Portfolio: 0.55%
Position/Portfolio: Closed position
- Revenue has reversed trend. This type of inflexion points usually leads to strong gains.
- My family and I eat at Chipoltle more often and we feel that awareness and programs being implemented make it less likely to get food poisoning at Chipoltle than other restaurants.
- Stock still trading well below high of $750 about nine months ago.
- Founder still running Chipoltle and appears committed to fixing the issue.
Price: $426.65
Trade/Portfolio: 1.05%
Position/Portfolio: 7.10%
I sold IEZ because;
- Long term trend in oil seems uninspiring as electric cars and solar continue to nibble away at potential market
Price: $36.74
Trade/Portfolio: 0.55%
Position/Portfolio: Closed position
Friday, June 24, 2016
Buy Salesforce.com
I purchased shares of Salesforce.com (CRM) today for the following reasons.
- Stock down 4.86% after Brexit vote setting up buying opportunity.
- Same reasons as previous post.
Price: $78.86
Trade/Portfolio: 1.26%
Position/Portfolio: 3.72%
Trade/Portfolio: 1.26%
Position/Portfolio: 3.72%
Thursday, May 19, 2016
Buy Salesforce.com, Sell Solar City
I bought SalesForce.com (CRM) today for the following reasons;
- Quarterly results outperformed.
- Marc Benioff is a charismatic and effective founder & CEO.
- Helping people sell more is a basic business need and Salesforce is a recognized leader.
- SAS business model wins in the long run.
Price: $82.03
Trade/Portfolio: 3.01%
Position/Portfolio: 3.01% (opening position)
I sold SolarCity (SCTY);
- Quarterly results included bookings at half the estimate.
- After limited research on Nevada's feed-in tariff controversy, it appears that while retroactive repricing seems unethical, state has legitimate case to create solar farms and reduce feed-in tariff's moving forward.
- Purchase plans gaining market share over leasing in which SolarCity has a funding advantage.
- Too many regulatory dependencies affecting stock.
Price: $20.31
Trade/Portfolio: 4.22%
Position/Portfolio: 4.22%
- Quarterly results outperformed.
- Marc Benioff is a charismatic and effective founder & CEO.
- Helping people sell more is a basic business need and Salesforce is a recognized leader.
- SAS business model wins in the long run.
Price: $82.03
Trade/Portfolio: 3.01%
Position/Portfolio: 3.01% (opening position)
I sold SolarCity (SCTY);
- Quarterly results included bookings at half the estimate.
- After limited research on Nevada's feed-in tariff controversy, it appears that while retroactive repricing seems unethical, state has legitimate case to create solar farms and reduce feed-in tariff's moving forward.
- Purchase plans gaining market share over leasing in which SolarCity has a funding advantage.
- Too many regulatory dependencies affecting stock.
Price: $20.31
Trade/Portfolio: 4.22%
Position/Portfolio: 4.22%
Monday, May 9, 2016
Sell Lending Club
I closed position on Lending Club (LC) today because;
- CEO Renaud Laplanche resigned along with 3 top managers after internal audit discovered loans were brought against customer's instructions. Limited details were provided but the fact that the founder and CEO had to resign doesn't make me want to wait to fully understand.
- Profits lower than expected, $0.01 versus $0.05 consensus.
- Stock has underperformed market for last 3 quarters despite beating expectations. This, coupled with ethics questions, could mean they were cooking the books.
- There at least a small probability that traditional banking interests are colluding against loan market places, but it's time to shoot first and ask questions later.
- Sad day for the revolution in banking :(
Price: $5.45
Trade/Portfolio: 4.70%
Position/Portfolio: Closed
- CEO Renaud Laplanche resigned along with 3 top managers after internal audit discovered loans were brought against customer's instructions. Limited details were provided but the fact that the founder and CEO had to resign doesn't make me want to wait to fully understand.
- Profits lower than expected, $0.01 versus $0.05 consensus.
- Stock has underperformed market for last 3 quarters despite beating expectations. This, coupled with ethics questions, could mean they were cooking the books.
- There at least a small probability that traditional banking interests are colluding against loan market places, but it's time to shoot first and ask questions later.
- Sad day for the revolution in banking :(
Price: $5.45
Trade/Portfolio: 4.70%
Position/Portfolio: Closed
Friday, April 15, 2016
Sell India Fund IFN
Sold IFN today for following reasons;
- Cover tax payments due to fact that I've been buying heaps on recent weakness 🤑
- India is projected to surpass China in population in 2023, as we get to within 2 years of that date a bunch of yahoos will buy in driving price higher than the fundamentals merit.
- Lots of other good reasons to stick in India, hard working people, open to outside world, Modi...
Price: $23.15
Trade/Portfolio: 2.19%
Position/Portfolio: 4.57%
- Cover tax payments due to fact that I've been buying heaps on recent weakness 🤑
- India is projected to surpass China in population in 2023, as we get to within 2 years of that date a bunch of yahoos will buy in driving price higher than the fundamentals merit.
- Lots of other good reasons to stick in India, hard working people, open to outside world, Modi...
Price: $23.15
Trade/Portfolio: 2.19%
Position/Portfolio: 4.57%
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
Buy Tesla (TSLA)
I bought more stock in Tesla for following reasons;
Tesla Model 3: This Is What A 'Game Changer' Looks Like, Forbes, 5-apr-2016
- Orders; 198k in 24hrs, 276k in 48hrs, 325k Thursday (1 week?) $35k price
- Top selling car in 2015, Toyota Camry, 361k units, $21-$28k price
- Mercedes S-Class sales 2015, 86k units, $35-$35k price
- Model S sold 50k units in 2015, 75% growth, at an average price of $70-$80k
- Mercedes E-Class autos, 50k units, in much lower $50k range.
- Mercedes S-Class, 22k units, ~$90k price
Wired Feb16
- Chevy Volt has sold 80k volts from dec10 to dec15.Tesla Model 3: This Is What A 'Game Changer' Looks Like, Forbes, 5-apr-2016
- Orders; 198k in 24hrs, 276k in 48hrs, 325k Thursday (1 week?) $35k price
- Top selling car in 2015, Toyota Camry, 361k units, $21-$28k price
- Mercedes S-Class sales 2015, 86k units, $35-$35k price
- Model S sold 50k units in 2015, 75% growth, at an average price of $70-$80k
- Mercedes E-Class autos, 50k units, in much lower $50k range.
- Mercedes S-Class, 22k units, ~$90k price
Wired Feb16
- Bob Lutz, CEO of GM at time Volt project was launched is on record as having said "global warming is a croc of shit"
- In the late 90s, GM leased EV1s while lobbying California to drop requirement
- GM announces new Volt with 200 mile range costing $35k will roll off assembly line dec16.
Market cap of $35B is still reasonable when compared to Toyota $158B.
Recent announcement of quarterly unit miss is dampening stock.
During Model 3 announcement, Musk said Tesla will be doubling SuperCharger stations by end of 2017. That plus Gigafactory creates barriers to entry.
Price: $255.89
Trade/Portfolio: 2.47%
Position/Portfolio: 15.81%
Market cap of $35B is still reasonable when compared to Toyota $158B.
Recent announcement of quarterly unit miss is dampening stock.
During Model 3 announcement, Musk said Tesla will be doubling SuperCharger stations by end of 2017. That plus Gigafactory creates barriers to entry.
Price: $255.89
Trade/Portfolio: 2.47%
Position/Portfolio: 15.81%
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)





