Friday, July 29, 2016

Buy Chipoltle (CMG), Sell Oil Services (IEZ)

I bought shares of Chipoltle today because;
- Revenue has reversed trend. This type of inflexion points usually leads to strong gains.
- My family and I eat at Chipoltle more often and we feel that awareness and programs being implemented make it less likely to get food poisoning at Chipoltle than other restaurants.
- Stock still trading well below high of $750 about nine months ago.
- Founder still running Chipoltle and appears committed to fixing the issue.
Price: $426.65
Trade/Portfolio: 1.05%
Position/Portfolio: 7.10%



I sold IEZ because;
- Long term trend in oil seems uninspiring as electric cars and solar continue to nibble away at potential market
Price: $36.74
Trade/Portfolio: 0.55%
Position/Portfolio: Closed position

Friday, June 24, 2016

Buy Salesforce.com

I purchased shares of Salesforce.com (CRM) today for the following reasons.
- Stock down 4.86% after Brexit vote setting up buying opportunity.
- Same reasons as previous post.
Price: $78.86
Trade/Portfolio: 1.26%
Position/Portfolio: 3.72%





Thursday, May 19, 2016

Buy Salesforce.com, Sell Solar City

I bought SalesForce.com (CRM) today for the following reasons;
- Quarterly results outperformed.
- Marc Benioff is a charismatic and effective founder & CEO.
- Helping people sell more is a basic business need and Salesforce is a recognized leader.
- SAS business model wins in the long run.
Price: $82.03
Trade/Portfolio: 3.01%
Position/Portfolio: 3.01% (opening position)

I sold SolarCity (SCTY);
- Quarterly results included bookings at half the estimate.
- After limited research on Nevada's feed-in tariff controversy, it appears that while retroactive repricing seems unethical, state has legitimate case to create solar farms and reduce feed-in tariff's moving forward.
- Purchase plans gaining market share over leasing in which SolarCity has a funding advantage.
- Too many regulatory dependencies affecting stock.
Price: $20.31
Trade/Portfolio: 4.22%
Position/Portfolio: 4.22%



Monday, May 9, 2016

Sell Lending Club

I closed position on Lending Club (LC) today because;
- CEO Renaud Laplanche resigned along with 3 top managers after internal audit discovered loans were brought against customer's instructions. Limited details were provided but the fact that the founder and CEO had to resign doesn't make me want to wait to fully understand.
- Profits lower than expected, $0.01 versus $0.05 consensus.
- Stock has underperformed market for last 3 quarters despite beating expectations. This, coupled with ethics questions, could mean they were cooking the books.
- There at least a small probability that traditional banking interests are colluding against loan market places, but it's time to shoot first and ask questions later.
- Sad day for the revolution in banking :(
Price: $5.45
Trade/Portfolio: 4.70%
Position/Portfolio: Closed

Friday, April 15, 2016

Sell India Fund IFN

Sold IFN today for following reasons;
- Cover tax payments due to fact that I've been buying heaps on recent weakness 🤑
- India is projected to surpass China in population in 2023, as we get to within 2 years of that date a bunch of yahoos will buy in driving price higher than the fundamentals merit.
- Lots of other good reasons to stick in India, hard working people, open to outside world, Modi...
Price: $23.15
Trade/Portfolio: 2.19%
Position/Portfolio: 4.57%




Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Buy Tesla (TSLA)

I bought more stock in Tesla for following reasons;

Tesla Model 3: This Is What A 'Game Changer' Looks Like, Forbes, 5-apr-2016
- Orders; 198k in 24hrs, 276k in 48hrs, 325k Thursday (1 week?) $35k price
- Top selling car in 2015, Toyota Camry, 361k units, $21-$28k price
- Mercedes S-Class sales 2015, 86k units, $35-$35k price
- Model S sold 50k units in 2015, 75% growth, at an average price of $70-$80k
- Mercedes E-Class autos, 50k units, in much lower $50k range.
- Mercedes S-Class, 22k units, ~$90k price

Wired Feb16
- Chevy Volt has sold 80k volts from dec10 to dec15.
- Bob Lutz, CEO of GM at time Volt project was launched is on record as having said "global warming is a croc of shit"
- In the late 90s, GM leased EV1s while lobbying California to drop requirement
- GM announces new Volt with 200 mile range costing $35k will roll off assembly line dec16.

Market cap of $35B is still reasonable when compared to Toyota $158B.

Recent announcement of quarterly unit miss is dampening stock.

During Model 3 announcement, Musk said Tesla will be doubling SuperCharger stations by end of 2017. That plus Gigafactory creates barriers to entry.

Price: $255.89
Trade/Portfolio: 2.47%
Position/Portfolio: 15.81%



Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Buy Facebook (FB), Sell Oil Equipment Services (IEZ)

Bought Facebook (FB) for the following reasons;
- I am personally using Facebook more to subscribe to events.
- Many colleagues have told me Facebook is best place to AB test content marketing ideas.
- Searching for products still doesn't work but it would be a huge gusher if FB ever fixes it.
- Google appears to have given up on social networking.
- Snapchat is serious competitor having siphoned off college market.
Price: $115.96
Trade/Portfolio: 2.30%
Position/Portfolio: 10.11%

Sold More results iShares Dow Jones US Oil Equipment (IEZ) for the following reasons;
- Better places to use money in next few months.
- Take a capital loss and consider re-entering after wash sale period expires.
Price: $35.13
Trade/Portfolio: 3.80%
Position/Portfolio: Closed