Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Buy FB, Buy LC, Buy IFN, Sell ITB

Buy Facebook $75
+ Dominant player, "7 footer" in Buffet speak
+ Zucherberg has long term perspective
+/- Teens leaving (93% -> 88%) Facebook are going to Instagram (+25%), because...
+ More parents spending time on Facebook
+ If Facebook does search for products right it will be a huge revenue stream

Buy Lending Club $21
+ Down 30% in 1 month without any bad news
+ Appears to be forming a low
+ Awesome prospects for disrupting the incredibly profitable banking sector

Buy India Fund $28
+ India now the world's fastest growing economy, surpassing China
+ Early innings of a long bull run
+ Indians voting for financial reform, Modi delivering

Sell ITB
+ Housing run in the late innings
+ Unemployment already low 5.7% so waning potential for improvement
+ Rates are low but probably will move up in mid-2015








Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Google GOOGL Sell $501 All remaining.
- Lost search market share because of Mozilla defecting.
- Could lose a lot of market share if Apple shifts default to another.
- Apple consolidating smartphone business, Android losing momentum.
- No good strategy to counter Facebook.
- Cuban says possible short.

Friday, December 5, 2014

Google GOOGL Sell $529 30%

Google experiences numerous headwinds
- Yahoo replacing Google as Firefox default search engine
- Apple considering dropping Google as default search engine for iPhone
- Android seems to lack momentum compared to Apple for phone & tablet market
- Being spread too thin may become problem if tide turns against core businesses

Friday, November 7, 2014

Solar City sell $51.75 (10%)

+ Lofty expectation getting harder to match
+ Price of oil going down because of greater US oil production, trend to continue for many years.

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Sell Apple (APPL) $99

+ Expectations could be higher than reality of announcement.
+ iWatch may be a nice item but will have hard time generating meaningful revenue bump.
+ If iPhone 6 disappoints then there will be a substantial sell-off.
- If iPhone 6 generates buzz stock has some room to increase but not a huge amount.

Thursday, August 7, 2014

Sell SCTY $75.90

Selling 10% of Solar City after considerable run-up.
+ Last quarter's beat will be hard to match.
+ CFO stepping down could mean trouble ahead.
- Several analyst have raised estimates which may mean Solar City will outperform.

Friday, July 18, 2014

Sell ITB Home Builder ETF

Sold half of ITB holding $23.52
- Housing starts and new permits were considerably lower than economists were expecting in June.
- Housing rebound seems very long in the tooth.
- Up day in the market is good selling opportunity.